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Hitwise Intelligence - Sandra Hanchard - Asia Pacific

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NZ Election: Prediction Markets, Policy Comparison and Flickr

September 10, 2008

While we've focused on the upcoming US election, New Zealand will also be holding a general election later this year. NZ users appear to have squared their attention on both the NZ and US elections, with significant search volumes querying the respective dates for each ballot.

As Palin attracts substantial online attention in the US, there has been a sharp increase in searches by NZ users for New Zealand First leader, Winston Peters. Peters has stepped down as Foreign Minister while donations to his party are under investigation. Searches for NZ Prime Minister, Helen Clark and Opposition Leader, John Key were neck-in-neck week ending 6 September 2008.

What's the most accurate method of predicting elections?

We've made the caveat previously that a search or visit is not equal to a vote, but rather indicates who or what is top-of-mind. There are other predictive methods for elections, such as traditional polling, but we're also seeing the emergence of online prediction markets. Recently launched NZ website, iPredict is a money prediction market that allows users to make 'bets' on who they think will win the election. Tapping into the 'wisdom of crowds', proponents of prediction markets argue they are more accurate given that users are incentivised to get it right. We'll be keeping track of visits to iPredict as the election nears.

What makes a policy comparison website objective?

Another interesting website that has appeared recently is Policy.net.nz. Built on a comparison model, it allows users to view policies from the major political parties in detailed and concise summaries. As an independent website, Policy.net.nz offers users an objective resource in deciding how they vote. Policy.net.nz shot up to 10th position in the Hitwise Lifestyle - Politics category during the week ending 6 September 2008. It ranked ahead of the websites of major political parties, including Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand at 12th position, National Party of New Zealand at 13th, New Zealand Labour Party at 16th, and New Zealand First at 84th, for the week ending 6 September 2008. We'll take a look at a later date at how downstream visits from Policy.net.nz are disbursed to the major political parties.

Using Flickr for your online PR strategy

It's interesting to note that Opposition Leader, John Key, has taken an interactive approach to building an online support network. Users are given a variety of options to 'connect' with him via links to PR on Flickr, YouTube and Facebook. Flickr attracted the most downstream visits from John Key's website, accounting for 32.43% of traffic for the week ending 6 September 2008. This enforces that candidates should be including photo-sharing tools in their communications strategy.

What do you think are the most effective tactics for engaging voters online?

Posted by Sandra Hanchard at 04:32 PM | (1) | (0)
In Categories NZ Election | Politics