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Hitwise Intelligence - Heather Dougherty - North America

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Flu season starts - predicting vaccine remorse or relief

January 09, 2008

Yesterday I noticed a story that discussed the research around a universal flu vaccine. Despite the unseasonably warm few days here in NYC, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we are headed for what is the peak of flu season (typically Jan through Feb). To date, the peak for the weekly share of traffic for the search term 'flu' was the week ending Oct. 27, 2007.

Flu Search Market Share.png

During that week, the top search phrases containing the term 'flu' were 'bird flu' and 'flu shots'. Searchers were also seeking information on locations where to receive flu shots and potential side effects. We are now seeing a shift from searches for the flu shot to symptoms and remedies for the flu (possibly driven by those that were not looking for flu shots back in Oct.).

Flu Search Terms.png

There is clearly a very strong seasonality effect upon searches for flu information, with searches typically beginning in Sept and running through Apr or May. One noticeable trend with the data is the large decline in searches since the 05/06 season, during the highly publicized flu shot shortage. The previous shortage of supply was a key driver of consumer interest and thus, searches. The peaks of searches on the term ‘flu shot’ during the suggested months (Oct. & Nov.) for the vaccine are down 53% during the Fall of both 2006 & 2007 from 2005. Now that situation has flipped, where the supply of flu shots may outnumber demand, which can cause issues for demand forecasting among manufacturers, clinics, or any type of flu shot provider.

Flu Historical Search Market Share.png

Search optimization can provide additional opportunities to drive awareness and demand, particularly to websites with information on where to receive the vaccine. During the peak week of Oct. 27, 2007, searches that include the phrase ‘flu shots’ offer numerous suggestions to help drive search campaigns for the next season.

Top Suggestions.png