Hitwise Intelligence - Bill Tancer - US

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Wow thats a big difference, still how many people have abandoned their myspace accounts? vs facebook? This is going to be very interesting to watch!

It makes Microsoft's $240 million investment for 1.6% of Facebook look even more expensive!

What you do not see represented on this graph is that "OpenSocial" is comprised of MULTIPLE websites, and can there for have the same person visit all 5 (something like that) sites, and be counted 5 times.

Facebook is 1 (Just 1) site that generates hundreds of millions of hits a month (Don't have source for this figure).

One word: OUCH.

Its true, open social networks includes multiple sites... but hitwise is measuring visits, not visitors... a user could be counted multiple times on Facebook as well as multiple times on Google alliance (is that like the dark side?) sites.

Unless I am completely missing something, OpenSocial is ONLY about application API's - it's not some magical agreement between all the big social networks to encourage users to float between them (why would they agree to that?!) - so this doesn't really seem like a fair comparison to me.

Checkmate! Game over. Facebook is toast! Why? Because if Facebook joins Google's OpenSocial they would be admitting defeat and become just another sheep in Google's herd but if they don't join they will die a slow and painful death. Why?Because Google is offering to host the apps that developers create on it's platform which means developers don't have to pay for hosting fees or bandwidth. Many apps that became popular on Facebook caused their owners more money to maintain due to increased bandwidth than they were making from ads. As a result few saw any real profits.This addresses that problem. I can't help but wonder what the executives who defected from Goggle to Facebook when Facebook was the flavor of the week are thinking now. Probably something like...oh s___!what have I done! Make no mistake this is a killer app. Advertisers only care about the bottom line and who can deliver it best. Thousands of websites using the same common API(not a day will go by from this day forward without a major website announcing they're joining Googles/Myspace OpenSocial)or one website,Facebook using a variation of HTML that's not compatible with anything. Myspace and Google together is a unbeatable one two punch. Besides, Facebook is still on a learning curve as can be seen by how they are constantly changing their developers documentation and rules for conducting business on the platform not to mention apps disappearing into thin air. Google/Myspace is the gold standard and will implement OpenSocial much more smoothly. Google/Myspace was in the widget game way before Facebook opened up to developers only six months ago. Facebook is a walled garden and it indiscriminately picks and chooses which apps get high visibility while it tweaks it's platform to keep other apps from succeeding. Also they deny apps submission into their directory on a whim thus a large underground subset of apps some of which are very popular will migrate from Facebook where they were denied entry for no apparent reason over to Google/Myspace. Facebook belongs to a bunch of nouveau riche wannabe stuckup spoiled brats who thought they had the world on a string. Now they must eat humble pie and bow down and kiss the ring that is Google/Myspace. Oh well,so much for Facebooks 15 billion dollar valuation. They'll be lucky if they can get 1 billion now. Facebook got greedy and as a result did'nt cash out when the opportunity presented itself.Why develope on Facebook which claims to have 50 million members when you can develope on Google's/Myspace platform which has 200 million members...do the math. Stick a fork in it! Facebook is toast!

Lawrence's comment reminds me of a saying in the investment world - "Pigs get slaughtered."

Zucker held on too long, started to believe his own hype, and probably surrounded himself with yes-men who drank the Kool-Aid too (as most leaders do, when in possession of the 2 often fatal flaws of hubris and inexperience -- just look at the privacy nightmare just begging for litigation that is their new ad network).

I'm surprised that Microsoft got suckered in for so much $ though. Of course, $250 million is pocket change to them, if you think about it.

It's simple ROI now - no developer in his or her right mind will develop Apps for FB anymore, now that the Alliance will bring in millions upon millions MORE users and impressions (and it's the impressions/daily users that make $ for Apps via advertising) than a single App written for FB that is ONLY compatible with FB.

It's been nice knowin' ya, Facebook...

You just got pawned...