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Hitwise Intelligence - Alan Long - Asia Pacific
Analyst Weblog
Bebo out from downunder?
November 20, 2009
This morning’s online news reported that Bebo is about to close its Australian operations. But what does that really mean?
To Australian Bebo users it means very little, there will be no change to their interaction with their social networks, but to AOL, who purchased Bebo in March 2008, it means a whole lot more, it is a response to not being able to substantially commercialise their audience in Australia against the growing behemoth of Facebook.
Bebo is currently the number 6 ranked website in the Social Networking and Forums industry, behind Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, Twitter and Yahoo! Answers. By way of comparison the following chart highlights the growth of Bebo versus Facebook, MySpace and the Social Networking and Forums industry.
• Social Networking and Forums industry growth October 2009 vs. October 2008 = +25.0%
• Facebook growth October 2009 vs. October 2008 = +100.9%
• MySpace growth October 2009 vs. October 2008 =-52.1%
• Bebo growth October 2009 vs. October 2008 = -53.8%
Average visit time comparisons also highlight the Facebook growth and the difficulty the other Social Network are facing in competing effectively. Facebook’s average visit time climbed 23.1% between October 2009 and October 2008 to 25 minutes 57 seconds, while Bebo suffered a 9.6% drop to 22 minutes 34 seconds and MySpace users decreased 7.5% to 24 minutes 30 seconds.
When websites gain momentum such as Facebook is currently experiencing, there is always going to be current competitors pushed aside and reduced to minor roles in the market, just look at the number of Search Engines that couldn’t compete effectively with Google once it hit its stride.
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Posted by Alan Long at 04:31 PM
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East Asian Games generating interest
November 20, 2009
The 5th East Asian Games on 5 December is for the first time being staged in Hong Kong. This is the first time Hong Kong plays host to a large-scale multi-sport international event.
The East Asian Games brings together 2,300 athletes from 8 countries and territories competing in 22 sports including Badminton, Basketball, Football, Judo, Rowing, Tennis and Wushu
The last major sporting event staged in Hong Kong was the Equestrian event as part of the Beijing Olympics in 2008. To provide an indication of the interest in the East Asian Games, the chart below tracks the share of visits by all Hong Kong Internet users to the official website (http://www.2009eastasiangames.hk) compared with the Beijing Olympics website at the same time leading up to the respective official opening days.
Click to view larger chart
· 60 days prior to the opening day of the East Asian Games interest was relatively low compared to the hype and build up that surrounded the Beijing Olympics, receiving only 42% of the share of visits that Olympics website received.
· The interest in the East Asian Games has started to climb and reached parity in terms of share of visits with the Olympics Games website 27 days preceding the opening.
· Share of visits peaked 19 days prior to the east Asian Games commencing;the share of visits was 34.5% higher than the Olympics on the corresponding day.
The growth in share of visits is a positive indicator that Hong Kong Internet users are increasingly interested in the East Asian Games as it nears the opening date.
The key drivers of visits to the East Asian Games website were Search Engines, Social Networking and Forums, Government (HK SAR) and Portal Frontpages industries. During the week ending 7 November 2009, Search Engines were responsible for 21.1% of upstream visits, followed by Social Networking and Forums with 16.1%.
Government websites (8.6%) and Portal Frontpages (8.2%) were also important sources of traffic. As the opening of the Games draws closer News and Media – Print should become more prominent as a driver of visits to the official website, currently responsible for only 1.5% of upstream traffic.
Social Networking and Forums websites, primarily Facebook will play an important role over the coming weeks in driving traffic., Facebook was the number one website in Hong Kong accounting for 13.0% share of all visits during the week ending 7 November 2009 by Hong Kong Internet users.
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Posted by Alan Long at 11:39 AM
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In Categories Government | Hong Kong | Olympics | Social Media
The changing face of Social Networks
November 18, 2009
This is the first in a blog series reviewing the lifestyle and demographic changes seen in the online audience profiles of the Social Networking and Forums industry in Australia.
The series acts as a sequel to the upcoming Experian Hitwise report ’The Rise and Rise of the Social Network’ and webinar on November 10.
Today, I am going to look at the industry level changes and in the following weeks review the four major players in the social media space – Facebook, YouTube, MySpace and Twitter.
Since the start of 2009 (the week ending 3 January 2009) the Social Networking and Forums industry share of all Australian Internet visits has increased 14.34 % and command 11.78% of all visits by Australian Internet users, second only to Search Engine’s 12.71%.
I am going to examine the profile of visitors to the Social Networking and Forums by Age, Gender, Geographic and Mosaic Lifestyle profiles to provide a top level understanding of the industry.
Age:
In coming posts we will see the nuances between four of the major social networks, but from an overall industry perspective it is no surprise that the 18-24 age group are highly over represented when compared against the online population.
The 25-34, 35-44 and 45-54 age groups all represent a similar percentage of the Social Networking and Forums share of visits and each are over represented against the online population.
Only the 55 years and over age group are under represented in comparison to the online. However, when compared to the start of 2009 they have grown in line with the overall industry maintaining their share of visits.
The fastest growing age group are 25-54 and 35-44, while the 45-54 and 18-24 age groups have experienced a decline in share of visits to the Social Networking and Forums industry this year.
Gender
There has been very little change in the gender profile of the industry since the start of this year (4 weeks ending 31 January 2009). Females are over-represented, and males under represented.
Geographic
Northern Territory and South Australia have the highest representation of users of Social Networking and Forums, while other states are very close to the profile of the Australian online population.
The east coast states dominate with 78.6% of all visits, whilst the other states are experiencing the fastest growth rates in usage. South Australia has seen the most growth in share of users to Social Networking and Forums in 2009 closely followed by Queensland, suggesting that the population was initially a little slower in its acceptance of social media.
Lifestyle Mosaic
The five over represented Lifestyle Mosaic Groups when compared to the Australian online population are:
E: Family Challenge – Mixed family forms with stretched budgets in outer suburbs
K: Community Disconnect – Older blue-collar workers and retires in country and coastal locations.
D: Pushing the Boundaries – Young families living in recent developments on the fringe of major cities.
F: Metro Multiculture – Medium to high density areas with much cultural diversity.
This highlights the breadth of diversity of the audiences of Social Networking and Forums, and through specific targeting within different Social Networks marketers have the ability to finely target their desired audience.
C: Young Ambition (educated high-earning young singles and sharers in the inner suburbs) is under represented against the online population but it was the fastest growing segment in 2009. Other Groups to experience strong growth this year are:
K: Community Disconnect,
J: Suburban Subsistence (low income, low-spending households in major regional and outer metro areas),
G: Learner and Earners (students and professionals living in high density lower cost suburbs).
Summary:
· 59.1% audience under 45
· Slight skew to female.
· East Coast represent 78.6% of visits.
· South Australia and Queensland are growing fastest.
· Northern Territory and South Australia had the highest representation against online population.
· Broad and diverse audience.
· Outer suburban/regional areas over represented.
· Young Ambition fastest growing Lifestyle Mosaic Group.
Next I’ll look at Facebook’s audience profile
Download our recent report ‘The Rise and Rise of the Social Network’
Posted by Alan Long at 04:40 PM
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Breaking News?
November 11, 2009
In his most recent post, our General Manager of Global Research, Bill Tancer looked at the importance of Google to the Wall Street Journal following Rupert Murdoch’s recent comments in a Sky News interview (http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/11/09/news-corp-considers-a-google-ban/?mod=rss_WSJBlog) saying he would consider blocking Google from indexing the News Ltd news websites.
To follow Bill’s analysis of the WSJ, here’s a local review of Google’s importance to the News Ltd News titles in Australia. I have aggregated Google Australia (google.com.au), Google (google.com) and Google News Australia (news.google.com.au) to provide a comparative view.
Below is the same chart highlighting upstream traffic to Google (Custom Category) from News Ltd News Titles (Custom Category).
During October 2009, the three websites made up 23.5% of the News Ltd News Titles (Custom category) upstream traffic and sat in positions 1 (Google Australia), 6 (Google)and 10 (Google News Australia).
While newspapers around the globe are facing a similar dilemma experiencing declining revenues - will a micro payment / subscription model turn their fortunes around? Or is Mark Scott, the Managing Director of the ABC correct in suggesting that the plan is a classic play of an old empire in decline?
I’d be interested in your thoughts.
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Posted by Alan Long at 06:36 PM
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In Categories Google | News and Media | Search | Search Engines
